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In the first half of 2020, Russia significantly reduced the foreign trade balance deficit for agricultural products. The director of the analytical department of the Russian Grain Union announced this to Interfax (RZS) Elena Tyurina. By the end of the first half of the year, the deficit more than halved – to $ 1.9 billion from $ 4.18 billion in the six months of last year. This is largely due to the fact that the export of agricultural products in January-June increased by 19%, to $ 12.6 billion against $ 10.6 billion in the same period of 2019, she explained.
E.Tyurina also noted that positive indicators have been achieved for all major Russian export products. “First of all, this is grain. The trade surplus on it in the first half of this year amounted to $ 2.6 billion against $ 2.23 billion a year earlier. In second place is sunflower oil – its exports exceeded imports by almost $ 1.5 billion against $ 1.07 billion in the six months of last year, ”the expert clarifies. In addition, in the first half of the year, this figure will grow significantly in the sugar trade – to $ 281 million from $ 1.4 million in the same period in 2019. Also, Russia sells more abroad than it imports rapeseed oil (surplus of $ 201 million), flour ($ 38 million), wheat gluten ($ 30 million) and other products.
For bread and flour confectionery products, the surplus of the foreign trade balance for half a year almost doubled and reached $ 38.5 million, informs Tyurina. “We are approaching equal values for the export and import of agricultural products, this is a very good signal for the market. However, not all products with potential for growth today show a positive foreign trade balance. Therefore, the growth of exports of agricultural products directly depends on how effective the support for the production of such growing categories of products will be,” – she said.
The export lacks marketing and branding support, and the export of products with a minimum redistribution has almost reached its ceiling, commented Maxim Nikitochkin, senior manager of the EY agro-industrial complex services group, to Agroinvestor. It is necessary to develop supplies of processed and food products abroad, he stressed.
According to the analyst’s forecast, the export of agricultural products in 2020 will be in the range of $ 28.5-30 billion (taking into account the volume of fish supplies abroad). This is more than in 2019 by several billion dollars. However, M.Nikitochkin specified, there is no significant growth in volumes to achieve the goal of $ 45 billion by 2024 set by the president. “The three whales of Russian agricultural exports in 2020 behave in different directions,” he says. – So, the export of fish decreased by 5.4% in January-July this year compared to the same period of 2019, wheat – increased by 9.6%, and the volume of shipments to foreign markets of vegetable oil added 38%. However, the growth in the export of agricultural products this year provides not only vegetable oil, but also meat, the export of which has doubled (plus $ 200 million over last year’s figure for the same period), oilseeds,
According to Nikitochkin, these are positive moments for Russia, given that the total export of all goods of the country for seven months of this year fell by 23.4% compared to the same period of 2019. He also noted the importance of the growth of the Russian export of agricultural products in the “necessary” categories of products for which there is an internal overproduction. This helps to reduce the pressure on the prices of producers of meat, sugar and sunflower oil, he said.
