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Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Situation with the fall in sunflower prices in Russia !!!
The fall in sunflower prices may not last long.
Competition between factories will grow, and the supply of sunflower seeds will decline.
Last week prices for sunflower oil and sunflower were actively declining. Sunflower has fallen in price by 350 rubles. up to 30.1 thousand rubles / ton without VAT, sunflower oil – by 1.4 thousand rubles. up to 69.6 thousand rubles / t with VAT, follows from the monitoring of the analytical center SovEkon. The further price of oil and sunflower will depend on several factors, – said Andrey Sizov, director of SovEkon, to Agroinvestor. The first is the global environment, since our market is completely dependent on the global market, and there are no restrictions on the export of sunflower oil from Russia. “There is a chance that the rapid decline in world prices for it is over,”- he suggests.
The second factor is the ruble exchange rate. “Its fall is probably close to the end, and there is a chance that prices will stabilize,” Sizov said. The third factor is domestic supply of sunflower and competition between plants. “So far, against the background of mass harvesting, primarily in the Volga region, the supply is quite high, but we assume that soon competition between the plants will grow, and the supply of sunflower seeds will decrease,” – the expert says. – Now raw materials are being actively purchased, but mostly for future use. Oil factories this season tried to process rapeseed and soybeans first of all, but now they are starting to switch to sunflower ”.
A.Sizov recalls that in the first weeks of September the processors were ready to buy sunflower at high prices, but now, when they have stocks, they have suspended purchases and are waiting for a decrease in prices. According to SovEkon, since the beginning of last week, many processors began to actively reduce prices, some of them lowered them by 4-5 thousand rubles / ton in just a few days. However, by the end of the week, buyers began to raise prices by 0.5-1 thousand rubles per ton.
As the sunflower harvest is low this year, A.Sizov believes that the potential for further declines in sunflower prices is rather limited. “In general, from the point of view of producers, the prices for sunflower are good now. An additional factor is that the sunflower was harvested in dry weather, and if desired, farmers can store it for a long time,’ – he draws the attention.
General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko notes that in October there is usually a drop in prices for both sunflower and oil. By this time, factories have already purchased raw materials and are beginning to saturate the market with finished products. “Further, a certain plateau is possible, and then, most likely, prices will start to rise again. Moreover, this season there will be a fairly tight balance of raw materials due to a relatively low harvest,” – he adds.
