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Sunflower Export May Be Record High since 2001, Shipments may exceed 0.5 million tons.
Sunflower exports this season will exceed 0.5 million tons, which will be a record high volume since the 2000/01 season, when 0.7 million tons were delivered abroad, the SovEcon analytical center predicts“. Last season, export amounted to 0.45 million tons. According to experts, at the end of October, shipments amounted to 30 thousand tons – the maximum figure for this month over the past few years. For comparison, in October 2018, only 6 thousand tons of sunflower were exported.
” SovEkon“Explains the intensification of shipments by the collapse of prices due to a record crop: since the end of September, sunflower has fallen in price by more than 3.3 thousand rubles / ton, or 17.5%, to 15.65 thousand rubles / ton. Thus, prices came even closer to the five-year low (15.55 thousand rubles per ton in November 2014). Earlier, the center warned that in the near future the negative dynamics will continue, as many processors have replenished stocks and are waiting for even lower prices . Now SovEcon“Also notes the weak demand from processors, including because many did not have free capacity to store oilseeds.
According to the analytical company ProZerno”, By October 25, sunflower cost an average of about 16.7 thousand rubles per ton against 19 thousand rubles per ton in the same period of 2018. According to RosstatIn September, the purchase price of sunflower by industrial enterprises decreased by 8% compared to August. The statistics agency recorded the lowest purchase prices last month in the Oryol Region (16.85 thousand rubles / t) and Bashkortostan (16.9 thousand rubles / t), the highest price was in Tatarstan (22.75 thousand rubles / t) ./t).
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, on October 31, sunflower was threshed from 7.3 million hectares, or 85.4% of the sown area, 13.5 million tons were obtained with a yield of 18.6 c / ha. Last year, at that time, the harvest amounted to 11.1 million tons with a yield of 15.8 c / ha. By the end of last week, the leaders in gross harvest of sunflower seeds were Saratov (about 1.5 million tons), Rostov (1.4 million tons) and Voronezh (1.15 million tons) regions. Also, the Krasnodar Territory (1 million tons) and the Volgograd Region (926 thousand tons) were included in the top 5, it follows from the monitoring of the “Center for Agricultural Analytics”. Industry experts predict that due to the expansion of crops, as well as an increase in the average harvest per hectare, this year the sunflower crop will update the record and can reach 14.2 million tons.
The Oil and Fat Union previously predicted that by the end of the 2019 calendar year, sunflower exports could reach 700 thousand tons . According to the results of the first half of the year, shipments were at the level of 266 thousand tons against 90 thousand tons in January-June last year. At the same time, the union drew attention to the fact that if the task is to fulfill the targets for the export of processed products, then you need to either increase the duty on the seeds from 6.5% to 20%, or limit the supply.
However, the leading expert of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies ( IKAR) Daniil Khotko does not expect growth in sunflower exports. Previously, he said to ” Agroinvestor“That shipments will remain at the level of the last season, while supplies of sunflower oil abroad will increase. US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service( FAS USDA) in October, estimated the potential for the export of sunflower from Russia in 2019/20 at 200 thousand tons against 330 thousand tons in 2018/19. Deliveries of sunflower oil, according to its calculations, should increase from 2.4 million tons to 2.6 million tons. True, American analysts estimated the October forecast for sunflower harvests at 13 million tons (excluding Crimea).
