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While Russian Grain Export is 3.5-4 million tons behind last year, THE RUSSIAN GRAIN UNION PREDICTS STABLE PRICES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON !!!
This season, Russia can export about 46 million tons of grain. Such a forecast was announced by the vice president of the Russian Grain Union during the Agroinvestor conference organized by the Agro-Holdings of Russia Alexander Korbut.
“Now export is 3.5-4 million tons behind last year, and, oddly enough, it satisfies me a little, because the situation is such that Ukraine, the USA, Europe, Argentina have sold well and we have the resources” – Korbut drew attention. According to him, this creates interesting prospects for the second half of the season: right now, wheat is being contracted for supplies in February at $ 215-218 / t, and since only grain reserves remain in Russia, it is likely that prices will not fall after they are Winter estimates and crop forecasts for 2020 announced.
“The condition of the winter crops is brilliant, the losses are insignificant, and the crops have grown, that is, we are setting a record,” Korbut said. According to the Ministry of Agriculture on December 6, winter crops were sown on 18.2 million hectares, which is 4.2% more than the forecasted area. Last year, they occupied 17.6 million tons.
True, Korbut recalled that once every 10-12 years there is a drought in Russia, the last serious one, which affected most grain-producing regions, occurred in 2010. “But now the development is completely calm, which gives very positive hopes for the development of the situation,” Korbut added. – So that we can get a good harvest next year and stable prices in the second half of the season, they will grow in proportion to the cost of storing grain – by 120-140 rubles. per month”. This is one of the possible scenarios for the development of the situation, which seems very likely, Korbut added.
He also drew attention to the fact that there is a concentration of players in the export market: if last season 300 companies supplied grain abroad, then this year – 140. “I’m not talking about monopoly yet, but maybe everything will be there,” said Korbut.
According to the forecast of the Russian Grain Union, gross grain harvest this year will be 123 million tons, including 77 million tons of wheat, 21 million tons of barley, 14.4 million tons of corn, Korbut listed. Domestic consumption in the 2019/20 agricultural year will decrease by 1-1.5 million tons due to livestock, the union estimates.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, this year’s grain yield will be 120 million tons in net weight, the department’s deputy head, Elena Fastova, said at a Russian Agroholdings conference. Meanwhile, Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev raised the forecast to 121 million tons, the ministry’s website says. “This is the second result in the post-Soviet history of Russia, which was achieved despite adverse weather conditions in several regions of the country,” he said. The harvesting campaign is coming to an end, about 5% of corn crops remain uncleared. Work continues in the North Caucasus, Volga and Far Eastern districts, the Ministry of Agriculture clarifies.
