Russia Grain Production 2019 – Rosstat Estimates Gross Production at 120.6 million tons !!!

Rosstatsummed up the preliminary results of this year’s harvest. According to his calculations, the gross grain harvest in all farms in weight after completion amounted to 120.6 million tons against 113.3 million tons in 2018. Including agricultural enterprises collected 84.4 million tons, peasant farms – 35.3 million tons, households – 0.9 million tons, follows from the data of the statistical office. Earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture estimated that this year the crop will be 121 million tons.

“120.6 million tons is close to our expectations, we predicted 121.6 million tons,” says the director of the analytical center SovEkon»Andrey Sizov. – Usually Rosstatadds a few tenths to the preliminary results. The situation will become clearer when detailed information on agricultural crops appears. ”

As practice shows, usually the actual gross yield indicators are greater than those published by Rosstat in December, since he does not always take into account the grain grown in all farms, commented to “ Agroinvestor»Director of the Department of Analytics of the Russian Grain Union( RZS) Elena Tyurina. So, in February Rosstat increased the grain yield by the end of 2018 from 112.9 million tons to 113.3 million tons, in the record year 2017, the initially announced indicator of 135.4 million tons increased by 100 thousand tons.

“The latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture on the crop in bunker weight is 126.7 million tons. As a rule, the volume after refinement is estimated by subtracting 5% from the gross harvest, therefore, it turned out 120.6 million tons,” Tyurina explains. “However, we believe that the figure will be larger – 123-124 million tons, taking into account all the grain harvested.” However, when calculating the balance of the RZS marketnevertheless operates with the figure that Rosstat givesshe adds.

As follows from the data of the “Center for Agricultural Analytics” of the Ministry of Agriculture, by December 6 in the Voronezh, Oryol, Bryansk regions, as well as in Tatarstan, grain harvesting was not completed, while the monitoring of the center did not provide information on all regions. In the whole country, by this time 3.3% of the crops of grain and legumes were not harvested – about 1.5 million hectares. Among them, 1.9% (approximately 540 thousand ha) of wheat, 3.4% (300 thousand ha) of barley, 7.3% (about 200 thousand ha) of corn remained unmilled.

Institute of Agricultural Market Studies( IKAR) estimates the grain harvest after refinement at the level of 122 million tons. “The fact is that this year, according to our forecasts, the coefficient of refraction – conversion from bunker weight to the test one — will be lower than average and less than a year earlier,” explained to Agroinvestor»Head of the grain direction of IKAROleg Sukhanov. “We believe that for wheat this indicator will be 3.1-3.2% compared to 3.7% last year and 4% in 2017.”

According to him, in addition to the fact that this year in many regions there were favorable cleaning conditions, the refractive index decreases annually due to improved technologies and the use of more advanced equipment, due to which the proportion of waste is reduced. “However, detailed information from the regions is still insufficient, so we are waiting for a detailed official report by the end of next week,” the expert said.

According to preliminary estimates of the National Union of Grain Producers, gross grain harvest is projected at 120 million tons, including the proportion of wheat will be approximately 75 million tons, the representative of the union said.

Also, according to Rosstat, this year all farms harvested 15.1 million tons of sunflower, which was a new record, as industry analysts predicted. The previous maximum – almost 12.8 million tons – was achieved last year. The statistics agency estimated the sugar beet harvest at 50.6 million tons (+ 20.4% compared to the previous year), potatoes – 22.2 million tons (-0.7%), vegetables – 14 million tons (+ 2.6%). According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by December 6, 53.3 million tons of sugar beet had been accumulated, the sunflower crop was 15.3 million tons in bunker weight, and 2.8% of the crops remained uncleared.