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The reduction of sugar beet crops by 0.15 million hectares to 1.09 million hectares may not prevent a record harvest. Refinitiv Agriculture analysts believe that this year it will be 54.5 million tons, 0.15 million tons more than in 2019. Such a harvest could be a new record, reports Telegram channel Refinitiv Agriculture.
Analysts note that favorable weather conditions in the central regions of the country – the main producers of agricultural crops – in the early stages of plant development can provide record yield of beet. At the same time, Krasnodar Krai will have the highest yield of 54.6 t/ha and the lowest yield in the Volga Federal District. The country’s average harvest per hectare is expected to be 50.1 t/ha, which is higher than last year and may become a record. However, dry and dry weather, established in Russia in summer, can reduce the potential yield of beet, analysts say.
Yevgeny Ivanov, a leading expert of the Institute of Agricultural Market Conditions (ICAR), is sure that no record is out of the question. The crops have shrunk more significantly than Refinitiv estimates; moreover, as the Krasnodar Territory harvests, yields are decreasing and the gap with last year is growing. Thus, while on August 5 the average harvest per hectare was 445.5 ths (437.8 ths a year earlier), on August 31 it was 397.8 ths against 461.7 last year. According to ICAR, this year’s sugar beet was sown 927.8 thousand hectares (minus 217.1 thousand hectares), the area decreased in all regions. However, in the regions, which are the leaders in terms of productivity, the reduction of acreage is not very noticeable. As of August 31, sugar beet harvesting in Krasnodar Krai had begun in 25 out of 31 districts. 24% or 40.3 thousand hectares (56.8 thousand hectares in 2019) were harvested, while gross harvest (in “dirty” field weight) amounted to 1.6 million tons (2.6 million tons). By August 21, the first million tons of beet was produced in the region, and by August 22 the first 100 thousand tons of sugar were produced.
“Surveys on root growth in July-August from “Soyuzrossakhar” in almost all regions showed a noticeable lag in weight and dynamics of the root, which was confirmed in most regions, where harvesting of sugar beet started late. Particularly noticeable lag by last year’s yield was recorded in Rostov region (by 41% to 209.1 c/ha) and in Stavropol (by 37% to 272.9 c/ha), – says Ivanov. – A small increase in yields from the first fields was recorded only in the Altai (by 10% to 425 c/ha), in Tatarstan (by 5% to 401.6 c/ha) and Kursk region (by 10% to 490 c/ha)”.
In general, in the regions where sugar beet harvesting has begun, the yield is lower, and its quality is worse, especially in the south: the root rot is more than usual, so it must be immediately processed. At the same time, the sugar content of root crops is higher. However, the intermediate indicators – yields, gross yield – talk about little, because there is a sugar content, sugar losses at all stages from the harvesting of sugar beet to the sugar warehouse, commented “Agroinvestor” Ivanov. “In addition to the gross harvest there is a volume of blanks and processing plants. The ratio of all figures in percentage terms from season to season is different and depends on many nuances. Therefore, the forecast of gross beet harvest shows little, in principle,” the expert adds.
In his opinion, it is better to be guided by estimates of total sugar production, taking into account molasses and syrup processing. This year it will be at the level of 5.6-6 million tons, but this indicator may be revised downwards. The decrease in production compared to last year is compensated by sugar reserves in Russia and Belarus and surplus output in the country (590 thousand tons of production with consumption of 350 thousand tons), even though our country will produce less sugar. “Sugar is still a lot. And we would like to finish it and export it, five years still saved up,” – says Ivanov. According to him, even if Russia under an extremely unfavorable scenario with consumption of 6 million tons of sugar will produce 5.1 million tons, taking into account the accumulated over the years 674 thousand tons of reserves and current production in Belarus sugar will be enough for all. Russia will have to export the entire output of over 5.1 million tons of sugar.
