Russian Grain Export Forecast in September may Exceed 5.3 million tons !!!

Elizaveta Litvinova | Agroinvestor | 26 August 2020

Grain exports in September may exceed 5.3 million tons

This figure will be a record for September !!!

A record volume of exports by rail is expected in August – 1.9 million tons

In September, Russia can supply 5.3-5.5 million tons of grain to foreign markets (including about 4.8 million tons of wheat), which will not only be higher than the level of the same period last year, when exports amounted to 4.56 million tons (in including 4.09 million tons of wheat), but also a record for September in general. Similar volumes of shipments per month were only in November 2017 and August 2018, he told Agroinvestor“Head of the analytical center” Rusagrotrans»Igor Pavensky.

He also clarified that grain exports in August could exceed 5.2 million tons (including about 4.4 million tons of wheat), of which about 1.9 million tons will be shipped by rail, which could also become a record. “This was only in the spring after the record harvest of 2017, then 1.95 million tons were transported by rail. And here, at the beginning of the season, we can reach this figure,” the expert adds.

Now a ton of Russian wheat with 12.5% ​​protein content for September delivery costs $ 199-200, having risen in price by $ 2. A year earlier, the price was $ 190-191 / t, Pavensky told Interfax. October price – $ 203-204 / t. The average current price for French wheat is $ 219 / t (unchanged for the week), for Ukrainian – $ 201.5 / t (+ $ 2), for American – $ 240 / t (+ $ 8).

According to Pavensky, during the week the purchase prices for wheat of the new crop with 12.5% ​​protein dropped by 150 rubles. up to 13.6-13.7 thousand rubles / ton (excluding VAT). Last year, the average price during this period was 11.7 thousand rubles. Purchase prices for low water fell by 200 rubles. up to 12.7 thousand rubles. (11.1 thousand rubles / ton in 2019).

Domestic prices were moving in different directions. Thus, against the background of the weakening of the ruble, prices in the South rose, while they were significantly higher than export parity. At the same time, trade activity in the Center and the Volga region decreased against the background of a high difference between supply and demand prices. “Buyers expect an increase in supply and a decrease in prices, as they expect that farmers will be forced to free some of the storage facilities for late crops,” Pavensky notes (quoted by Interfax). At the same time, he added, export demand shifted to the regions of the Volga region and the Center earlier than usual, due to poor harvest in the South.

EXW prices for wheat with 12.5% ​​protein in the South added 350 rubles. up to 13-13.5 thousand rubles / ton (excluding VAT), in the Center – they dropped to 11-11.3 thousand rubles / ton (minus 100 rubles), in the Volga region they remained at the level of 11-11.5 thousand roubles. In Siberia, wheat of a new harvest costs 12-12.4 thousand rubles per ton.

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