Russia’s Drought in the South is made up by the Wheat Harvest in the Center and the Volga Region

Wheat harvesting in the Center and the Volga region made up for the decline from drought in several regions of Russia.

The record yield in the regions of the central part of Russia and the Volga region has become a reason for new optimistic estimates of the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation, although arid phenomena in the southern regions and in the Urals are still making adjustments, experts of the grain market said.

“We raised the forecast for wheat harvest immediately by 3.5 million tons, to 81 million tons from 77.5 million, due to the fact that we increased the forecast for the Center to 22.8 million tons (17.4 million were collected in 2019) and the Volga region up to 17.5 million tons (11.4 million were collected in 2019): in each federal district by 1.3 million tons due to record yields in most regions, “said the director of the strategic marketing department of the Rusagrotrans analytical center “Igor Pavensky.

He noted that more than 70% of winter wheat has already been harvested in the Center, like in the Volga region, the situation in the Urals is better predicted, where harvesting has begun: for example, the assessment of the collection in this district has been increased by 0.5 million tons due to weather conditions. “If it were not for the weather disruptions in the South, Siberia and the Urals, then the gross harvest of wheat, with increased acreage, could have been higher than in the record 2017,” Pavensky said. In 2017, Russia received a record harvest in its entire history – 135.5 million tonnes in net weight, including 86 million tonnes of wheat.

The director of the Sovekon analytical center, Andrey Sizov, said on Thursday during an online conference that the center’s last public forecast was 79.3 million tons, in particular, due to record sown winter areas, which added yields to the Center and the Volga region, but the weather made adjustments … He noted the drought events in the South, which affected the collection, in particular, in the Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories.

“At this stage, there remains a question mark over the spring wheat harvest: the Volga is probably still good, a serious question about the Urals and Siberia, where the dry weather is long and the crop condition is apparently poor. There were noticeable rains, but in places: Altai Territory for a few days is almost a monthly rate, and in neighboring Omsk – almost zero millimeters, “- said Sizov. He did not rule out a wheat harvest in the 80 million ton region, noting that initially the market consensus was in the 75-76 million region, but is now approaching higher yields.

Pavensky believes that the expected high fees can ensure an increase in export volumes already in September: in July supplies amounted to 3.67 million tons (in July last year – 4.76 million tons), in August the Russian Federation can export 4.3-4.5 million tons of grain (at the level of August 2019). “The harvest began to arrive in large quantities only by the end of July, the Center and the Volga region have not yet had time to make their contribution to the supply volumes. In the future, supplies are closer to record, so it is possible that in September we will approach 5 million tons and more, as the record wheat harvest from the central and Volga regions, “the expert said.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation expects the grain harvest in Russia in 2020 at the level of about 122.5 million tons, the wheat harvest may reach 75 million tons. According to Rosstat, the gross grain harvest in the Russian Federation in 2019 amounted to 121.2 million tons – this is the second indicator in the post-Soviet history of the country after the record-breaking 2017, when 135.539 million tons of grain were harvested. The wheat harvest last year amounted to 74.453 million tons.

Volga Baikal AGRO News Update ......

Agriculture News Russia and World Grain News !!!