Volga Baikal AGRO News Update on Russian Agriculture, Barley Export from Russia Increased by one Third !!!

Ekaterina Shokurova | Agroinvestor | 18 September 2020

Volga Baikal AGRO News Update on Russian Agriculture, Barley Export from Russia Increased by one Third !!!

Supplies from Russia will replace the falling barley export volumes from the EU on the world market.

The export of barley from Russia in the 2020/21 season is more active compared to the last agricultural year. As of September 16, the export of agricultural crops already exceeded the volume of shipments in the first three months of the 2019/20 season by 32%, amounting to almost 1.2 million tons, according to the data of trade flows from Refinitiv.

According to the Director of the Analytics Department of the Russian Grain UnionRZS) Elena Tyurina, from July 1 to September 16, barley exports increased by 50% and exceeded 1.5 million tons. Saudi Arabia remained the leader in barley purchases, as in the previous year, accounting for almost 60% of shipments. The second place was taken by Jordan, which bought 2.5 times more barley than last year – 178 thousand tons. Iran became the third, although supplies there decreased from 310 thousand tons to 162 thousand tons. Also from Russia this year a new buyer of barley appeared – Kuwait, shipments there amounted to 45 thousand tons. Sales in Morocco and the United Arab Emirates significantly increased – up to 25 thousand tons 22 thousand tons, respectively, Tyurina told Agroinvestor“.

As the head of the analytical center Rusagrotrans told Interfax»Igor Pavensky, from the beginning of the season to September 16, Russia exported more than 12 million tons of grain, which is almost 0.6 million tons more than on the same date last year. The growth was mainly due to the active export of barley, which increased by one and a half times to 1.6 million tons. According to Pavensky, active export is facilitated both by the harvest of wheat and barley, which is close to the record, and by the rise in prices amid fears of importers due to the gradual worsening of the situation with coronavirus in the world.

“Despite the fact that the sowing of barley this year decreased by 400 thousand hectares, a higher level of yield allows us to expect that the final harvest per hectare will be at the level of 2017 – about 26 centners, and this allows us to predict a yield of 21.5 -22 million tons “, – estimates Tyurina. Analytical center ” Rusagrotrans“Raised the forecast of gross barley harvest by 0.3 million tons to a record 21 million tons, said” Agroinvestor»Pavensky. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of September 17, barley was threshed from 7.7 million hectares (91% of crops), 21.1 million tons were harvested, which is 1.3 million tons more than a year earlier. The average crop yield increased by 1.6 c / ha to 27.3 c / ha.

USDA Foreign Agricultural ServiceFAS USDA) last week increased the forecast of gross barley harvest in Russia by 3 million tons to 20.3 million tons excluding Crimea. The export potential in agriculture was increased by American analysts from 3.6 million tons in the August survey to 5.1 million tons. At the same time, for the EU countries it was reduced by 2.1 million tons relative to the last marketing year, to 5.7 million tons. Russian barley to foreign markets last season, according to FAS USDA, amounted to 4 million tons.

“Our barley will replace barley on the world market, which was previously supplied from the EU,” says Tyurina. “The demand for it will continue to grow and sales will increase by 1-1.1 million tonnes [relative to the previous season].” According to her, at the end of last year, the share of Russian barley accounted for 15% of the world trade in this agricultural crop. Given the current dynamics of exports, this figure could reach 17%. Barley prices will also rise due to the interest from the world market, now they average 10.5 thousand rubles / ton against 10.3 thousand rubles. t a year ago, adds Tyurina. Barley export prices at the beginning of the week were at $ 186 / t (FOB Novorossiysk). Now they have exceeded $ 190 / t FOB, says Pavensky.

Barley export this season Rusagrotrans analytical center»Predicts at 5.7 million tons against 4.5 million tons in 2019/20. However, the price outlook is not as rosy as it seems against the background of a decrease in exports from the EU, Pavensky draws attention. “Ukraine has not reduced its gross harvest and export, which may reach about 5 million tons as in the last season, Australia will compete with us, since supplies to China, which takes malting barley, are blocked, and their potential is over 3 million tons, including feed barley, – the expert comments. “Argentina will also supply over 2 million tons of feed barley to foreign markets, Kazakhstan can increase its exports due to an increase in the harvest”.   

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