Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Forecast for the Grain Harvest !!!
This year grain harvest in Russia will amount up to 127.4 million tons.
The Ministry of Agriculture assessed the prospects for the gross grain harvest in 2021.
Grain harvest in Russia this year will amount to 127.4 million tons, including 80.7 million tons of wheat. This forecast was voiced by the Deputy Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut during the strategic session of the Union of Grain Exporters. This is the agency’s baseline forecast. The pessimistic forecast assumes a harvest of 116.6 million tons, including 73.9 million tons of wheat, the optimistic one – 131 million tons, of which 83 million tons of wheat, Interfax reported citing the ministry’s presentation. In 2020, the gross grain harvest amounted to 133.5 million tons, including 85.9 million tons of wheat.
According to the basic forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, the harvest of barley and rye this year will also decrease relative to the indicators of 2020 and will amount to 19.4 million tons and 2.2 million tons against 20.9 million tons and 2.4 million tons, respectively. Corn production may increase from 13.9 million tons to 14.4 million tons, oats – from 4.1 million tons to 4.4 million tons. For cereal crops, the department expects multidirectional dynamics, for example, the gross rice harvest may be slightly lower than last year – 1.08 million tons against 1.14 million tons, buckwheat production may also decrease – from 892.2 thousand tons to 867.6 thousand tons, but on request, a significant increase is possible – from 396.5 thousand tons to 494 thousand tons
During the session, the forecast of the analytical center ”“- 127.9 million tons of grain, including 80.5 million tons of wheat. Previously, his estimates were slightly higher: 128 million tons and 80.6 million tons. Analytical center ” “May 13 raised the forecast for wheat harvest from 80.7 million tons to 81.7 million tons in connection with the improved assessment of the state of crops, reported Reuters. on the contrary, in the first ten days of May, he lowered his forecast for wheat from 79.5 million tons to 79 million tons.
According to the, the grain harvest in 2021 will be 126-128 million tons, of which 82 million tons will come from wheat. “Sowing of spring wheat at the beginning of sowing was less active than a year earlier, but now its rates are recovering, besides, weather conditions contribute to both field work and the growth of winter crops,” commented Director of the Department of Analytics of Elena Tyurina.
General Director of the companyVladimir Petrichenko considers the base forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture to be optimistic. “Our forecast is somewhat lower, since we assume that the death of winter crops will be more significant than the agency expects,” he explained to . In general, in most grain-producing regions the weather is favorable for sowing spring crops and developing winter crops, but in the South Urals, the Trans-Urals and the South-Eastern part of the Volga region, the situation is quite alarming in terms of weather, the expert says. Petrichenko adds that the lag in the sowing of spring crops, which was observed at the beginning of the sowing season, is rapidly decreasing, however, in previous seasons, the timing of sowing spring crops was generally more optimal.
The expected volume of grain production will further strengthen Russia’s position in world markets, thenotes. According to him, this season grain exports will amount to about 48 million tons, next year supplies to foreign markets may increase to 51 million tons, the ministry said in a statement. At the same time, an important innovation for the grain market in the new season will be the floating duty, which will come into effect on June 2. According to Oksana Lut, rates will be close to the current estimates for the last week: for wheat – $ 29.4 / ton, for barley – $ 39.5 / ton, for corn – $ 50.7 / ton.
Despite the prospects for increasing grain exports, one of the key strategic objectives of the development of the Russian grain market is to ensure domestic demand, reminds the. Now, to support domestic processors, the department is working on the issue of forming an irreducible grain reserve in the intervention fund in the amount of 3 million tons, which corresponds to the needs of flour producers for two to three months, the ministry said.