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Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Forecast for the Harvest and Exports of the Russian Wheat !!!
According to the April report of the International Grains Council (IGC), this year the harvest of the Russian grain can reach 120.2 million tons, which is 1 million tons higher than the March estimate. The adjustment was due to an increase in the forecast of the gross wheat harvest by 1 million tons to 77.9 million tons. The forecast for grain exports in the new season has been increased by 3 million tons to 46 million tons, including 37.1 million tons of wheat may be exported to 3 million tons more than the IGC estimated in March.
According to the forecast of the director of the analytical department of the Russian Grain Union (RZS) Elena Tyurina, this year the gross grain harvest can reach 128-129 million tons, of which 82-83 million tons are wheat. The forecast is based on the plan of the Ministry of Agriculture for sown areas: under wheat they should increase by 200-250 thousand hectares, of these, winter wheat accounted for about plus 100 thousand hectares, and spring wheat – 100-150 thousand hectares. “But spring sowing at the moment lags behind last year’s indicators by almost two times. So, spring wheat is sown only 52% compared to the same period last year, corn – only 20%, ”- highlights E.Tyurina specifying that this is due to weather conditions. The structure of the crop rotation can still be changed due to the measures to restrict exports, – adds E.Tyurina.
E.Tyurina also drew attention to the low April export figures, which were significantly lower than April last year. Thus, the total export of grain amounted to 1.7 million tons, of which wheat – 850 thousand tons, barley – 500 thousand tons, corn – 300-305 thousand tons. “The volume of wheat exports is only 25% of the export in April last year, when 3.2 million tons were exported. For barley, the situation is the opposite – we are still competitive in it, there is much more export activity there. The reason for this was the export duties on wheat, which make the export uncompetitive, ”explained Tyurina.
According to her, only large companies are now engaged in the export of wheat, in addition, now access to purchases is limited: grain of new consignments is almost not offered. As a result, the wheat carry-over will be higher than at the beginning of the current season. Expectations for the remaining wheat were at the level of 15 million tons, now they are estimated at 19 million tons, while at the beginning of the season the estimate was 13.5 million tons. “I associate this with the fact that the introduction of measures to restrict exports will not allow us to choose a quota , the export will amount to no more than 9.5-10 million tons out of 17.5 million tons, Tyurina believes. – Accordingly, the final export will amount to about 46.5-47 million tons, which is less than the export potential, which, according to my estimate, is 52 million tons. For wheat, by the beginning of the season we will come up with an export of 37.5-38 million tons, while we shipped 35.8 million tons of this crop. ”
Tyurina also believes that the IGC’s estimate of the gross grain harvest of 120 million tons is incorrect. According to the report of the Ministry of Agriculture, the sowing of winter crops for the harvest in 2021 amounted to 19.3 million hectares, last year it was 18.8 million hectares. “In addition, there is positive information from the South – there is an increase in the percentage of winter crops in a normal state, so I would not say that a sharp decline in gross harvest awaits us. I look at this situation with optimism, of course, if there is no change in the plan for the structure of crops,” – added Tyurina.
According to the Chairman of the Board of the Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin, in conditions when the spring sowing was carried out at 13.1% of the planned area, it is too early to make reasonable forecasts for the new harvest. “The situation with the weather and the state of winter crops suggests that we are unlikely to repeat the success of the outgoing season, but the decline is likely to be insignificant,” – he told to Agroinvestor. More accurate information will be at the end of May, – he said. “By this time, we plan to hold a strategic session with the participation of key plant growers and exporters – members of the Union, where we will discuss the prospects for the new season,” he concluded.
Assessment of the analytical center “Rusagrotrans“: In terms of gross grain harvest this year is similar to Tyurina’s forecast and is 128 million tons. Leading analyst of the center Aleksey Egorov said this during his speech at the International Agricultural Online Forum “Grain of Russia: a new reality “, – reports Grain Online.
Thus, according to the baseline forecast of Rusagrotrans:
the wheat harvest can amount up to 80.6 million tons (85.9 million tons last year), barley – 20.2 million tons (20.9 million tons), corn – 14.6 million tons (13.9 million tons ). The export potential of grain, taking into account the sharply increased reserves, will grow to 51 million tons, of which wheat – up to 40.5 million tons
the portal cites Egorov’s data. He also said that this season, taking into account supplies to the EAEU, Russia is exporting 48.68 million tons of grain, which is more than in the previous two seasons, but less than in the record 2017/18 season. The export volume of wheat will be equal to 37.34 million tons, the expert added. The head of the analytical center “Rusagrotrans” Igor Pavensky told to Agroinvestor that, despite the problems due to dry autumn and ice crust in winter in the south of Central Russia, due to the growth of gross harvests in the southern regions and a good situation in the Volga region, the grain and wheat harvest can become the third in the history after 2017 and 2020, and the export – the second due to high initial stocks.
