English
German
Russian
The correction for wheat is associated with an increase in the gross harvest of agricultural crops by 0.9 million tons to 85.3 million tons. At the same time, analysts expect high export rates in the next few months, as traders will seek to export grain more actively before the quota is introduced in mid-February. A potential increase in domestic supplies of wheat by the end of 2020 could also support exports, says SovEcon.
Analytical center Rusagrotrans estimates the potential for export of wheat is lower – at the level of 39.9 million tons. Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (ICAR) and ProZerno also report about the possibility of shipments of about 40 million tons. Head of the analytical center Rusagrotrans Igor Pavensky notes that in December deliveries will decrease to 3.7 million tons against the background of the fact that the railcars with wheat have already been scheduled until the end of the year, the ports are loaded, and the weather conditions are worsening, – Kommersant writes. General Director of ICAR Dmitry Rylko told the newspaper that in December supplies will remain at the November level at best. Although customs can add volumes from previous months and “portray” statistical growth, – he admits.
According to SovEkon, last week the average prices for Russian wheat fell by $ 1 up to $ 253 per tonne (FOB). In the coming months, the director of the analytical center, Andrey Sizov, expects the current level of quotations to be maintained, with fluctuations of several dollars a week. According to the analytical center Rusagrotrans, prices for wheat with 12.5% protein in the Russian deep-water ports fell by almost 1 thousand rubles / ton over the month and now amount to 17.8-18.1 thousand rubles / ton, excluding VAT. One of the factors behind this dynamics was the growth in supply from Australia and Argentina, as well as the strengthening of the ruble and the expectation of export restrictions.
The main negative factor for the export of wheat from Russia this season, according to Sizov, can be an increase in the export duty.
Earlier, the largest Russian associations of food companies asked Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to consider introducing a duty on grain exports. True, according to the vice-president of the Russian Grain Union Alexander Korbut, the option of simultaneously introducing quotas and duties is unlikely, although such a scenario is not excluded, – he told to Agroinvestor.
