Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Grain Situation in Russia !!!

Analysts predict a decline in wheat harvest in 2021

Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Grain Situation in Russia !!!

Analysts predict a decline in wheat harvest in 2021: preliminary estimates of the gross harvest of wheat – 78 million tons.

Next year, the wheat harvest in Russia may decrease up to 78 million tons, total grains – up to 125 million tons, – reported Interfax, citing the forecast of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR). Analysts estimate the gross harvest this year at 84 million tons and 130.5 million tons, respectively.

According to Dmitry Rylko, IKAR General Director, in 2021 production can decrease due to the poor condition of winter crops, mainly in the Center and in the South of Russia. For example, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Stavropol Territory previously reported that there is catastrophically little productive moisture in the meter layer of soil – up to 80 mm. This figure is 80% of the sown area of ​​winter crops.

IKAR provisional forecastbased on two opposing factors, from which the experts made an average conclusion. “The first factor is a record sowing of winter wheat. All other things being equal, we should expect very good sowing of spring wheat, although it is not yet clear what will happen to the weather. On the other hand, winter crops have been very bad for many years and are in a very fragile condition, ”Interfax quotes him.

Director of the Analytics Department of the Russian Grain Union Elena Tyurina told to Agroinvestor: “That, according to preliminary estimates, the sowing of winter crops for the harvest of 2021 in Russia increased. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of November 27, winter crops occupied almost 19.3 million hectares – almost 1.1 million hectares more than last year and 100 thousand hectares more than the plan. “This is a good sign, because in the structure of winter crops, wheat accounts for the main share (about 80%), and the average yield of winter wheat in Russia is 2-2.5 times higher than that of spring wheat,” she compares. “Accordingly, an increase in the share of winter crops, and especially wheat, is a factor in the growth of grain production.” E.Tyurina adds that, according to Roshydromet forecasts, a snowy winter is expected, which will have a positive effect on plant development, although now it is at an average level.

According to E.Tyurina, while the Russian Grain Union cannot even give a preliminary estimate of grain production next year, since spring sowing is still ahead and it is not known what area it will occupy. “For now, we can say that the gross harvest of winter cereals may be higher, but the total will become clear only in May,” – she says.

Vice President of the Russian Grain Union Alexander Korbut also believes that it is too early to make such forecasts. “Now it is “a finger to the sky ”, but I can give a fork in the region of 119-129 million tons of grain,” – he says. In his opinion, the IKAR assessment to reduce the harvest of wheat up to 78 million tons is approximately correct. The decline will occur against the background of the fact that so far no one is sure that the winter crops will survive and show good growth. “This is one of the possible scenarios. Although it also happened that at first everything was bad, and then the situation leveled off,” – Korbut notes. According to him, now an important question is when the snow will start: how quickly it will happen, what layer will be and whether it will cover winter crops in time before the cold weather.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of November 27, in Russia, 1.2% of crops of grain and legumes remain to be harvested. The harvest is about 137.5 million tons in bunker weight, while a year earlier it was about 126 million tons, including the gross harvest of wheat reached 88.1 million tons, which is 10.2 million tons more than in the same period of 2019. According to the ministry’s forecast, wheat production this year will amount to at least 82 million tons, grain in general – 127.5 million tons in net weight.

Source: Agroinvestor.ru

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