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Volga Baikal AGRO News Update on the Russian Agriculture Grain Export !!!
In October, 2020 Russia will reduce grain export.
Supplies through the port of Kavkaz and small ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin decreased.
In October Russia will reduce grain exports to 4.9-5 million tons, follows from the monitoring of the analytical center Rusagrotrans. “This is significantly lower than was exported in September – 5.8 million tons,” the head of the center Igor Pavensky told Interfax. In particular, the export of wheat is estimated at 4.3-4.4 million tons (4.9 million tons in September), barley – up to 0.5 million tons (0.8 million tons) and corn – up to 0.1 million tons (82 thousand tons). The center’s previous forecast for October was 5.5 million tons. It was changed by reducing supplies through the port of the Caucasus and small ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin, the expert says. As of October 19, about 3.1 million tons of grain have already been shipped through ports and border crossings.
At the same time, export prices for Russian wheat with delivery in November-December increased by $ 3.5 over the week to $ 250-252 / t. Prices peaked since January 2015, when they were $ 269 per ton, Pavensky said. Purchase prices for wheat of the new harvest (protein 12.5%) in deep-water ports increased by 400 rubles over the week. up to 18.2-18.4 thousand rubles / ton (excluding VAT) due to higher FOB prices and low supply. Purchase prices for low water also increased by 400 rubles. up to 17.2-17.4 thousand rubles / t. Last year, they amounted to 11.55 thousand rubles / ton, Pavensky reminds. The domestic Russian wheat market grew by 350-400 rubles. per ton in all regions. Wheat prices of 4th class in the south have strengthened to 16.9-17.2 thousand rubles / ton, in the Center – up to 15.3-15.4 thousand rubles / ton, in the Volga region – to 14.5- 14.6 thousand rubles / t.
As Vice President of the Russian Grain Union Alexander Korbut told to Agroinvestor, the Russian grain prices are higher than those of other suppliers, and in November-December they will either remain at their current level or fall. According to him, the strengthening of the ruble or lower prices for agricultural products can play a role here. Both options are unlikely, – Korbut said. “Because now the prices of the world market are supported by the fact that Russia is the only major supplier that can immediately offer large volumes of grain. But, for example, prices in France are lower than ours, so we are losing our competitiveness,” – he explains.
As a result, either prices will remain at the current level and exports will decline, or prices will decline, Korbut said. Given the high prices and large export volumes, farmers have already made good money, so they can afford not to rush and hold on to the goods, he thinks. Korbut also draws attention to the uncertainty of forecasts for next year’s harvest due to problems with winter crops. “Yes, it has rained now, but there is a risk of a decrease in the harvest of next year’s winter crops, and farmers understand this best,” – he notes.
In September, the export situation was developing very well, says the general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko – the weather was good and the logistics work. Now, according to him, everything is not so rosy – fewer cars come from the south, prices are rising, and farmers do not want to sell grain. One of the significant factors behind a slight drop in exports was the fact that since September 15, Russia has been applying severe restrictions on the overweight of vehicles. This control has not yet had time to affect the September export, but in October this factor is already “playing”, the expert says.
Industry analysts predict the grain harvest this year will exceed 130 million tonnes in net weight. Ministry of Agriculture estimates the potential of the gross harvest at more than 125 million tons. According to the ministry, as of October 19, 130.6 million tons of grain in bunker weight were threshed in the country, less than 6% of the crops remain to be harvested.
