Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Russian Wheat Harvest !!!
USDA predicts a record wheat harvest in Russia.
Agricultural crops are estimated at 29.3 million hectares.
USDA raised the forecast of wheat harvest in Russia by 1 million tons to 86 million tons excluding Crimea. The forecast includes 64.5 million tons of winter wheat and 21.5 million tons of spring wheat. Thus, our country can update the record for the gross harvest of agriculture: 86 million tons were harvested in 2017, the volume of wheat production in Crimea last year amounted to about 540 thousand tons, in 2019 – over 840 thousand tons, according to Crimean statistics, that is, the harvest, taking into account the Crimea, may exceed 86.5 million tons.
The yield of agricultural crops can be 29.4 kg / ha – 1.4% less than last year, the review says. At the same time, the sown area will reach 29.3 million hectares, the American agricultural department expects. Last month, it is estimated 0.3 million hectares lower. Analysts did not adjust the area under winter wheat (17 million hectares), but revised the estimate for spring wheat, increasing it to 12.3 million hectares.
According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture:
as of June 10, spring wheat was sown on 13 million hectares. In the last three years, spring wheat in Crimea occupied a maximum of 6.7 thousand hectares, winter wheat – about 300 thousand hectares.
At the same time, the US Department of Agriculture again considered that there was no death of winter crops in Russia: taking into account the Crimea for the harvest-2021, winter wheat was sown on about 17.36 million hectares. However, a number of regions of the Center and the Volga region reported a significant reseeding of dead winter crops. After the publication of the May forecast, Russian analysts drew attention to the fact that the American agricultural department had too high expectations for the harvest. Forecasts of experts from the Moscow office of the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA) then significantly disagreed with the data of their American colleagues: they estimate the potential of the gross harvest of wheat in Russia at 77.5 million tons.
In its June report, the American agricultural department admits that it was dry in Russia last fall, and this negatively affected winter crops, but spring precipitation, according to analysts, improved the situation. They also note that despite the delay in sowing spring wheat, the work was completed on time in all the main regions of its production.
Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) before the publication of the report, the US Department of Agriculture also raised the forecast for the wheat harvest from 80 million tons to 82 million tons, Reuters reported. One of these days IKAR has already increased its estimate by 0.5 million tons to 80 million tons due to the improvement of the situation in the South and in the Center of the country.
Analytical center “Rusagrotrans” raised the forecast of gross wheat harvest from 80.5 million tons to 82 million tons against the background of record crops of spring wheat in the Central Federal District – 1.5 million hectares against 0.9 million hectares last year, and good moisture reserves in the South and in the Center after last rains, he told to Agroinvestor Igor Pavensky, Head of the center:
According to the basic forecast of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, under favorable weather conditions, the grain harvest this year will amount to 127.4 million tons, including 81 million tons of wheat.