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Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Sugar World Markets and Trade !!!
Global production for Marketing Year (MY) 2020/21 is estimated up 16 million metric tons raw value (tons) to 182 million, with Brazil expected to account for three-fourths of the surge. Consumption is expected to rise due to growth in markets such as India, China, Indonesia, and Iran and is estimated to draw stocks lower despite a rebound in output. Exports are expected to be up sharply with rising supplies (particularly in Brazil).
2020/21 Sugar Overview
U.S. production is forecast up 10 percent to 8.2 million tons, due to greater harvested area and yields for sugarbeets and sugarcane. With higher production, imports are forecast more than 25 percent lower at 2.7 million tons. Imports are based on projected quota programs and
the calculation of U.S. Needs as defined in the U.S./Mexico Suspension Agreements. Consumption is forecast slightly lower but is still the
second largest on record, while stocks are projected down 19 percent due to the lower imports.
Production in the European Union is forecast at 16.1 million tons, down for the third year in a row. The drop is due to lower yields, which stem from 3 straight years of drought, combined with severe damages from beet yellows virus disease, which has hit France particularly hard. Consumption is unchanged while imports are estimated higher and stocks are forecast down with the drop in production.
China production is forecast to remain relatively steady, up slightly to 10.5 million, due to higher beet sugar production. Consumption is forecast to return to pre-COVID levels as the food and beverage industry is expected to fully recover from the fallout of the COVID-19 crisis. Imports are up slightly with the rebound in consumption, and stocks are expected to fall for a sixth consecutive year as government policies continue to discourage stockholding.
India production is forecast to rebound 17 percent to 33.8 million tons on higher yields and area. Consumption is forecast at a record 28.5 million tons due to a growing economy while exports are expected to be up slightly to 6.0 million tons as supplies remain high. Stocks are
estimated at levels that could meet 7 months of consumption.
Brazil production is forecast to rebound 12.1 million tons to 42.1 million due to higher returns to sugar compared to ethanol and overall favorable weather. Approximately 48 percent of the sugarcane crop is expected to be processed for sugar and 52 percent for ethanol, versus last year’s 35 and 65 percent split, respectively, as the COVID-19 pandemic and social distance measures have reduced fuel use. While consumption is expected to be down, stocks and exports are forecast to rise with the higher available supplies.
Sugar_World Markets and Trade
You can read more here: USDA
