Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Sunflower Oil Market !!!
In 2022 the export of Russian oil can amount up to 3.4-3.5 mln tons but the supply potential is higher !!!
Now export prices are “stormy”, the market is very volatile, since Ukraine is the main supplier of sunflower oil, and ports in the country are closed. The total potential of Russia and Ukraine in the global sunflower oil trade is 78%, and Ukraine alone is 50%. Therefore, the restriction of supplies from these two countries has a strong impact on prices. You can call what is happening now a storm or a fever: last week a ton of raw sunflower oil cost $ 1.65 thousand, now $ 1.59-1.6 thousand. The price may change by $50-100 per day.
There is a shortage of sunflower oil on the world market due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which led to the suspension of sunflower processing in Ukraine and exports. This affects the supply in the EU, North Africa, the Middle East, India, China and other countries. At the same time, the replacement of sunflower oil with rapeseed, soy, palm and corn will be limited, since their supply is also not large, analysts at Oil World (Germany) believe.
In particular, with regard to the European market, the volume of sunflower oil supplies from Ukraine to the EU in October-December 2021 amounted to 1.52 million tons, which is less than in the same period of 2020 (2.16 million tons), but, nevertheless, amounted to 86% of the total supply of this product to the EU. It is also noted that the export of sunflower oil from Argentina to the EU in the specified period amounted to only 10 thousand tons, but in the near future the demand from European countries may increase. However, the supply of Argentine oil is also limited, the export of oil in January-September 2022 may amount to 0.8 million tons against 0.7 million tons last year. In this regard, it is possible to focus on the prices of Argentine sunflower oil, which last week cost more than $ 2 thousand / ton, and on February 24 – $ 1.5 thousand /ton.
From September to January, Russia exported only 800 thousand tons of sunflower oil, for the same period last season — 1.1 million tons, although in fact the production and supply volumes should have been higher. During the five months of the 2021/22 agricultural year, 2.33 million tons of sunflower oil were produced, for the same period last season — 2.54 million tons. At the same time, in January 2022, export deliveries were minimal, in February — 275-300 thousand tons (in 2021 – 285 thousand tons), in March — 56 thousand tons — this is the fulfillment of old contracts. “There was a failure in January. Surprisingly, in March there are deliveries through the ports of the Black Sea, and even through Yeysk,” – says Petrichenko.
There will be a powerful slowdown in exports in March-April, although the port of Novorossiysk is open and can work. This year, sunflower processing and oil export will have less potential. The export of sunflower oil may amount to 3.4-3.5 million tons, production – 5.7-5.8 million tons.” Russian shipments will replace the dropped Ukrainian exports, but Russia will not be able to fully compensate for supplies from this country.