English
German
Russian
Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Wheat Price Development !!!
Wheat export prices increased again.
Reuters:
Last week, prices for Russian wheat rose due to the deterioration of forecasts for the new harvest, as well as against the background of higher prices on world grounds.
So, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), the price of a ton of wheat with 12.5% protein for August delivery increased from $ 248 / t to $ 254 / t (FOB, Novorossiysk). Analytical Center “SovEcon” recorded an increase in the cost of agriculture by $ 10 to $ 255 per ton FOB. According to Refinitiv, from July 26 to 30, wheat rose in price from $ 245 / t to $ 253 / t.
Head of the analytical center “Rusagrotrans” Igor Pavensky notes that export prices rose by $ 10 to $ 256 per ton by the middle of last week. The reason he called an increase in world quotations and a decrease in forecasts for wheat production after the release of the Rosstat reportby areas of winter and spring crops for harvesting. CPT prices increased to 15.3-15.5 thousand rubles / ton against 14.8-15 thousand rubles / ton a week ago, he told to Agroinvestor. On the domestic market last week the price of wheat of the 3rd and 4th classes rose by 150 rubles / ton to 12,825 rubles / ton with self-pickup for the European part of Russia, – said SovEkon.
Chairman of the Board of the Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin commented to Agroinvestor: “Now the market is under the influence of information stuffing by Roshydromet and Rosstat. On the basis of which several analytical agencies at once aggressively lowered the forecast for the harvest. We must not forget that Russia is the world leader in wheat supplies. These prediction games lead to very specific price movements in the world market. As a result, the FOB market jumped to $ 265 per ton. Purchase prices have also grown at all grain terminals. This jump in prices does not bode well for exporters. We are becoming systemically uncompetitive this season at international tenders. Our proposals are significantly more expensive than competitors’ proposals.”
The International Grains Council last week reduced the forecast for the grain harvest in Russia from 124.2 million tons to 123.3 million tons, including wheat – from 81.5 million tons to 81 million tons. July 30 IKAR reported that he lowered the forecast for wheat harvest in Russia from 81.5 million tons to 78.5 million tons. The adjustment is associated with a decrease in wheat yield in the south and center of Russia, as well as in the Volga region. SovEkon reduced the forecast of wheat harvest from 82.3 million tons to 76.4 million tons, which is due to the clarification of the official data on the area of preserved winter crops, as well as the negative impact of weather factors. At the end of last week, Rosstat announced that winter wheat remained on 15.6 million hectares, and not 16.8 million hectares, as the center’s analysts estimated. In general, wheat sowing amounted to 28.7 million hectares – 722 thousand hectares less than last year, barley – almost 8.2 million hectares (minus 300 thousand hectares), rye – just over 1 million hectares against 987.2 thousand hectares. ha.
An additional factor for reducing the yield forecast is the hot and dry weather in July, which negatively affected the potential yield of spring and, in some cases, winter wheat. So, the yield lower than the forecast for winter wheat is recorded in the Center and the Volga region. The forecast for the yield of spring wheat in the Volga region has worsened, especially in the eastern parts of the region, where soil moisture reserves are the lowest in a decade.
Earlier, Roshydromet lowered its forecast for gross grain harvest in 2021 by 2.5%, or 3 million tons due to drought and other unfavorable weather conditions. “As a result of the analysis of the past and calculation of the expected agrometeorological conditions, the gross grain harvest in the Russian Federation as a whole after processing will amount to 121 million tons,” scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center Roman Vilfand told RIA Novosti. Ministry of Agriculture at the same time he noted that such “information stuffing” can be used to manipulate the grain market. The department maintains its forecast for the grain harvest at 127.4 million tons, including about 81 million tons of wheat.
From the beginning of the 2021/22 season to July 29, grain exports from Russia amounted to 1.6 million tons, which is 39% less than in the same period of the last agricultural year. Of these, 1.17 million tons fell on wheat, which is 40% less than last year, the export of barley amounted to 0.35 million tons – 9% more, corn – 0.07 million tons (-38%), said SovEkon with reference to the data of the FCS.
