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Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Winter Crops Condition in Russia !!!
At the end of November 2020, 22% of winter crops are in poor condition (data from the Federal Hydrometeorological Center). Based on this, industry analysts predict a decline in the grain harvest in 2021.
But the situation can improve: in the southern regions, the weather in spring will play a decisive role.
The situation can either improve or worsen: in some regions there is a lack of moisture in the soil, and there is also a problem of lack of snow cover against the background of the expected cold snap. But sometimes, as the survey of Agroinvestor showed, even within the same region, the condition of winter crops in different farms can differ significantly.
Quotes and forecasts of managers of various enterprises of the agro-industrial sector (based on the survey of Agroinvestor):
Krasnodar region: half of the winter crops of one holding’s fields are in a good condition, and half are in a poor condition. “The main problem is that there is no moisture and snow cover.”
Krasnodar region, another company: winter wheat and barley are developing well and are now in the three-leaf phase. Some concerns are caused by rapeseed: it rose late and has so far developed poorly due to dry weather. There are no dead crops. Now there is enough moisture in the soil. The region has positive temperatures, so there is no snow cover yet.
In the absence of snow cover, possible long-term frosts and frosts will weaken crops or lead to their partial death. In addition, current weather conditions may contribute to the growth of the mouse rodent population.
In many areas of Kuban, the overall condition of winter crops is even better than the last season: there are no crops that have not sprung up or died. “Now all the sown areas are in the tillering phase or the beginning of tillering.”
In farms of the Krasnodar and Stavropol territories, seedlings were obtained for all areas of winter crops, they are in the shilts phase — two or more leaves. However, there is a problem with a large number of mice, and measures are being actively taken to combat them. “The main problem in these regions is a low supply of productive moisture, and there is no accumulation of it. There is no snow cover now. In the case of a snowless winter and severe frosts, you can expect a large area of replanting. If there are no severe frosts during the winter, and a sharp increase in temperatures in early spring, then winter crops can lay the expected yield potential.”
Vladimir Petrichenko, General Director of the analytical company Prozerno, told Interfax: “in the North Caucasus and southern Federal districts, 40% of winter crops did not grow. 36% of winter crops are in poor condition. But the situation may still improve. As for the Volga region and especially the black earth region, the situation here is difficult — if they did not ascend, they will not ascend. And in the Central district, the share of bad and failed crops is 17%.”
The main risks for crops are associated with untimely care in the winter: “Positive temperatures in late October and November increase the consumption of sugars accumulated by plants and may complicate their wintering. For the same reason, the growth of plant diseases in the spring is possible.” At many enterprises in the Orel, Kursk and Lipetsk regions, the condition of crops is not worse than last season, in the Tambov region, the development of winter crops is weaker than a year earlier.
Alexey Ivanov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Razdolye-Agro (Tula region), says that winter crops do not cause concerns. “We sowed them early enough and have already received all the inputs. Snow has fallen, although the cover is not very large yet, but snowfall is expected in the near future. Accordingly, we are quite optimistic about next year’s harvest,” – he said.
As for the state of winter crops in the whole country, in the southern regions, the weather in the spring will play a decisive role: if the spring is prolonged and wet, the situation canimprove.
Sergey Smirnov, Deputy General Director of the agricultural holding in the Nizhny Novgorod region, expresses the following opinion: “In our zone, the condition of crops at the entrance to winter was very good. We had a long fall that allowed the plants to develop and accumulate sugars. The current state of winter crops does not cause any concerns yet. Now we have a little snow, but there is a cover – from 5 cm to 15 cm.”
