Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the World Grain Price Forecast !!!
The president of the American company AgResource Den Basse advised farmers to “sow every acre of land”: according to his forecast, world grain prices in 2022, and possibly in 2023, will remain at a high level. He stated this at the conference of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies “Where is the margin-2021”.
“My research suggests that every vacant acre in the world should be planted. And we need good weather <…> If we look at the latest data on wheat stocks, we will see that we are in the situation of 2007, and if there are problems with the weather in the Northern Hemisphere, then the world market will be subject to a large roller coaster until then until you get a good harvest, ”he added.
“Investors want to buy more raw materials, and the upward trend in wheat imports is obvious, we see a similar situation with soybeans, corn, barley,” – Basse said. He drew attention to the fact that last year the prices for grain increased significantly. World prices for wheat increased by $ 100 per ton, for corn – by $ 120 per ton. Soybean prices increased by $ 200 / t. Basse predicts that US corn and wheat prices will reach their highest levels in the 2021/22 crop year. As the head of AgResource noted, now the ratio of world wheat reserves to the level of projected consumption is at a thirteen-year low.
During his speech, he said that China will play an important role in the procurement of products from the United States, in addition, many countries are increasing stocks to ensure their food security. “The price of corn in China has reached record levels as the country continues to recover pig production [following the spread of African swine fever in the country and a significant reduction in livestock numbers],” – Basse said.
Director of the analytical centerAndrey Sizov drew attention to the fact that every year Basse has been promising high grain prices for 20 years. According to Sizov’s forecast, there is still time to see new price records in the current season. “In the last couple of weeks, there has been a rollback, but, for example, for the Black Sea wheat, we will still see a price above $ 300 per ton this season,” – he is sure. The expert, like his American counterpart, believes that the key factor in the rise in prices is the import of corn to China. “The grain market is affected by the not very good corn harvest in the Northern Hemisphere and problems with the harvest of this agricultural crop in the Southern Hemisphere remain – these are the main factors. If the problems in South America get worse, we will most likely see new price records,” – Sizov said.