Volga Baikal AGRO News Update on World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – December 2020 !!!
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised 0.7 million tons to 1,073.1 million as higher beginning stocks offset lower global production, which remains at a record. Most of this month’s production decrease is for Argentina, where production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 18.0 million. The lingering impacts of drought and local freeze damage have caused Argentina’s forecast yield to be the lowest in eight years. World consumption is increased 1.7 million tons to 752.7 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for China and the EU. Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 0.9 million tons to 190.8 million on higher exports for Russia and the EU more than offsetting lower Argentina exports. Increases in imports are led by China, Pakistan, and Turkey. China’s import pace continues to be robust and at 8.0 million tons, imports would be the largest since 1995/96. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million tons to 320.5 million but remain record high.
World COARSE GRAINS:
Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast down 11.1 million tons to 1,447.8 million. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, virtually unchanged use, and greater stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with reductions for Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and Moldova more than offsetting increases for South Africa and Laos. For Ukraine, the projected corn yield is lowered based on continued poor harvest results to date and if realized would be the lowest since 2012/13.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include larger corn exports for the United States, Turkey, and South Africa, with mostly offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Russia. Corn imports are raised for China and South Korea, but lowered for the EU, Mexico, and Iran. For China, while the National Development and Reform Commission has not made any public statements indicating additional corn import quota has been allocated, shipment data for exporting countries through early November indicates they will exceed their tariff rate quota level of 7.2 million tons. Barley exports are raised for the EU, with higher imports forecast for China. Total coarse grain imports for China are forecast to reach a record 26 million tons, just above the previous high of 25.7 million reached during 2014/15.
The 2020/21 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production and crush, resulting in lower exports of oilseed meals and vegetable oil. Foreign oilseed production is lowered 5.6 million tons to 473.3 million, mainly on lower soybean crops for Argentina and India and lower sunflowerseed production for Ukraine and Russia. Yields are reduced for Ukraine and Russia on dry weather conditions during the season and recent harvest results. Argentina’s soybean production is lowered as economic uncertainty reduces area expansion. Crop reductions result in lower exports of soybean and sunflowerseed meal and oil. Foreign oilseed stocks are increased slightly as lower cottonseed, sunflowerseed, and peanut stocks are offset by higher soybean stocks. Foreign soybean stocks are increased mainly on 2019/20 revisions to imports and crush for China and Argentina, respectively.