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EXPERTS RAISE FORECASTS FOR WHEAT HARVEST IN RUSSIA IN 2020 AMID RECORD YIELDS IN THE CENTER AND THE VOLGA REGION
The analytical center of Rusagrotrans JSC has raised the forecast of wheat harvest in the Russian Federation this agricultural year (July 2020-June 2021) by 3.5 million tons at once, to 81 million tons.
The head of the center, Igor Pavensky, told Interfax that the forecast has been raised due to record yields of winter wheat in a number of regions of the Central and Volga districts. “In addition, a relatively high starting yield was recorded in the Urals District,” he said.
Pavensky clarified that the new forecast is second only to 2017, when 86 million tons of wheat were harvested. On average in the Russian Federation, the wheat yield is forecasted to be 4% higher than in 2019 – 27.5 c / ha versus 26.5 c / ha. At the same time, he recalled that, according to Rosstat, the area under wheat this year increased by 4.6%, to a record 29.4 million hectares.
Pavensky also said that the harvesting of winter wheat in the Central District by August 5 was carried out on almost 70% of the area. “The region maintains favorable conditions for the formation of the spring wheat crop, the moisture reserves in the soil in most regions remain record-breaking,” he said, adding that the forecast for wheat harvest in the district has been increased by 1.3 million tons, to 22.8 million tons. which is 5.5 million tons more than was collected in 2019.
In the Volga region, winter wheat has also been harvested from almost 70% of the area. “In the northern part of the district, a high yield of spring wheat is expected, but in the south and in Bashkiria, crops will suffer due to drought,” the expert said. The forecast for wheat harvest in the Volga District has been increased by 1.3 million tons to 17.5 million tons. This is 6 million tons more than in 2019.
The analytical center also increased by 0.3 million tons, to 29.3 million tons, the forecast for wheat harvest in the South and North Caucasus districts. This is 2.4 million tons less than what was collected in 2019. Wheat harvesting in the region is almost complete. The estimate of the wheat crop in the Urals has been increased by 0.5 million tons to 3.1 million tons amid relatively high yields at the start of harvesting and improved weather conditions. But the harvest will be less than last year by 0.5 million tons. The forecast for wheat harvest in the Siberian District has not changed – 7.5 million tons, which is 1.8 million tons less than in 2019.
Pavensky also said that the export potential for wheat this agricultural year will amount to 37.5-38 million tons against 35 million tons a year earlier, including export to the EAEU countries.
As reported, this week the forecast for wheat harvest was raised by the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR). The new estimate is 79.5 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons more than the previous one. The reason was also the record yield of winter wheat in the central regions and the Volga region. IKAR also expects high performance from spring wheat.
In 2019, the Russian Federation harvested 74.5 million tons of wheat against 72.1 million tons in 2018.
