Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the RF Harvest Prices !!!

Within a week, in the Kuban area, the 3rd class wheat lost 1600 rubles

Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the RF Harvest Prices !!!

Within a week, in the Kuban area, the 3rd class wheat lost 1600 rubles.

The weight of the factors that put pressure on the Russian market of basic grains and oilseeds still outweighs, and prices continue to decline. The main factors are the same: high yields and stocks, problems with logistics and the uncertainty of export prospects.

World market             

Factors leading to price increases:

  • Probable pent-up demand of a number of importers, which will manifest itself in autumn;
  • Growing inflation in the world may encourage countries to restrict exports.

Factors leading to lower prices:

  • Progress in resolving the issue of opening Ukrainian seaports. Vessels are already leaving the Black Sea ports;
  • Favorable prospects for the Australian crop, which will hit the market in the fall.

Russian market 

 Factors leading to price increases:

  • Views on grain quality, especially in the Center, remain negative. There are reports of some quality problems in Orenburg, Novosibirsk.

Factors leading to lower prices:

  • Uncertainty about the real possibilities of exporting grain against the backdrop of sanctions;
  • Inevitably rising stock levels for farmers.
  • Analytical agencies raise crop forecasts in Russia – estimates vary from 89 to 92 million tons (exports 40-44 million tons);
  • Low demand for Russian grain against the backdrop of Ukraine’s dumping.

Summary:

Wheat on the world market and on the Russian basis, in particular, continues to be corrected downward as a new crop enters the market. The current target for FOB Novorossiysk is  $ 290-300 per ton in the absence of political upheavals. Additional pressure is exerted by high yields and, as a result, significant supply volumes on the spot. The issues of difficulties in paying for Russian grain against the backdrop of financial sanctions are still relevant. There are also problems with logistics.

Source: Pole RF

 

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