Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Russian Oilseeds Harvest !!!
Russia can get a record harvest of oilseeds !!!
This year Russia can harvest more than 23 million tons of the main oilseeds – sunflower, rapeseed and soybeans.
This forecast was announced by the general director of the analytical companyVladimir Petrichenko at the conference “Grain market – yesterday, today, tomorrow “, reports” Finmarket “. V.Petrichenko recalled that in 2020, the collection of oilseeds in Russia amounted to 20.2 million tons.
Forecasting the sunflower harvest, the expert said that expectations for it are moderate – 15.5 million tons. However, this is more than in 2020, when 13.3 million tons were harvested. “At the beginning of the season, it was clear that more than 9 million hectares against 8.5 million hectares last year. So far, it seems to me that there will be 9.25 million hectares. But there may be more, – said Petrichenko. “Taking into account the weather conditions, it turns out that everything is quite good for the development of sunflower.” The harvest of rapeseed this year, according to Petrichenko, is expected at 2.8 million tons, soybean – 4.8-4.9 million tons.
During the conference, Petrichenko also said that the world maintains a rather tense balance in oilseeds and butter, which will support prices at the start of the season, writes Agrobuk. “The market tension will decrease slightly, but it will be higher than in 2019,” the expert said. “At the start of the season, an atypical picture may develop: soybean oil may turn out to be the most expensive, sunflower oil – the cheapest, but prices will remain very high”.redicts that at the beginning of the season (FOB Rotterdam) prices for sunflower oil will be at the level of $ 1250 / t, rapeseed oil – $ 1400 / t, soybean oil – $ 1500 / t.
New crop sunflower oil will cost about $ 1,100 / t (FOB Black Sea), but the price may drop to $ 900 / t, it follows from the calculations of ProZerna. The sunflower of the new harvest will cost about 30-33 thousand rubles / ton with VAT, the analyst suggests, specifying that it is still difficult to predict prices in rubles, because it is not known what the rate of the national currency will be.
Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies () Dmitry Rylko, speaking at the event, said that predicts a sunflower harvest at 16.1 million tons, writes Agrobuk. Based on this forecast, the losses of farmers from the effect of the floating duty on oil can range from $ 0.5 billion to $ 4.5 billion at an oil price of $ 1100 / t and $ 1,900 / t, respectively. Rylko explained that the floating duty will force processors to reduce the purchase price of raw materials – hence the lost income of farmers. The floating duty on oil will take effect from September 1. The duty rate will be 70% of the price, exceeding the basis ($ 1000 / ton of oil).
The Executive Director of the Fat and Oil Union Mikhail Maltsev told to”That this year record sowing areas of oilseeds are expected. “For this, thanks to the Ministry of Agriculture, which is consistently pursuing a policy of expanding oilseed crops in accordance with the federal project for the development of agricultural products exports. For our part, we are also fulfilling our obligations and increasing our oilseeds processing capacity, which this year will amount to about 26 million tons, that is, we are moving at a faster pace and do not reduce the ratio of raw materials production to processing capacities by at least 90%, ”said is he.
According to Maltsev, even taking into account the record harvest and the introduction of restrictive measures on the export of raw materials, Russia can process the entire volume of collected raw materials. He also expressed hope that production will continue to increase next year. “Of course, it was influenced by the high prices for oilseeds, which we observe in the 2020/21 season, when our prices almost doubled,” Maltsev said. – At the same time, we believe that, despite the introduction of certain protective measures on the domestic market against the dynamics of world prices in the form of a damper duty on sunflower oil, the level of profitability in oilseed production will be the highest in crop production. This will make it possible to count on the further expansion of their crops”.
In terms of production volumes this year, weather conditions will be the main factor, added Maltsev, noting that, at the same time, the level of agricultural technologies among producers increases from year to year, which affects the growth of yields. “In any case, the average yield in our country should increase, and if favorable weather conditions develop, then against the background of a record sowing, we may see a harvest not even of 23 million tons, but 24 million tons of raspberries,” – predicts Maltsev.