Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Domestic Market of the Wheat !!!
Prices in ports continue to decline.
In the domestic market, according to the results of last week, the demand of exporters for wheat revived slightly, according to a review by the SovEcon analytical center. However, prices in ports continue to decline. Thus, wheat with 12.5% protein in deep-water ports fell to 14.8-15.3 thousand rubles/ton from 15.3-15.5 thousand rubles/ton a week ago.
“In June, we cannot rule out the emergence of more active demand in the South for the opening of exports from July. Prices for the new crop still remain at a record high of $400+ per ton FOB,” SovEcon analysts say. In the coming weeks, they do not yet see factors that could significantly support the ruble market. “Rolling stocks are generally close to average, and in the South – noticeably higher, ahead is a new, probably record harvest. The main hope of farmers is probably a weaker ruble, but this is not a matter of the near future,” the center said in a statement.
Chairman of the Board of the Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin told Agroinvestor that the market is now waiting for the results of the Egyptian GASC tender with delivery in July-August, which will be held today. “This will be the first tender with delivery in the new season,” he stressed.
According to Zernin, export prices for Russian wheat now amount to about $420 per ton, for barley – $ 350 per ton. The index of exporters’ purchase prices for wheat in the deep-sea ports of the Black Sea decreased by 3.8% over the week (from 16.1 thousand rubles to 15.5 thousand rubles per ton) against the background of declining demand on the eve of the end of the season and the strengthening of the ruble, he stressed.
Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of the analytical company ProSerno, told Agroinvestor that the results of the GASC tender will show where the market will move. While the price of FOB Black Sea wheat is at $410-412 per ton, the cost of purchasing CPT Black Sea has slightly increased to 15-15,1 thousand rubles per ton without VAT, the expert said.
According to him, wheat exports are now going quite well. In June, in his opinion, the rate of export will be slightly reduced, since many have already chosen quotas. “Perhaps someone will trade quotas. As a result, it turns out that the total quota may not be selected. At the end of the season, there is a slight slowdown, the market is quieting down,” – added Petrichenko.