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Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Forecast for the Export of the Russian Wheat !!!
According to the experts of the agro-industrial complex, in 2021 Russia can sharply reduce the export of wheat. The reason is the persistence of high domestic prices, taking into account the plans to introduce an export duty.
This season, Russia may sharply reduce wheat exports due to the persistence of high domestic prices, taking into account plans to introduce export duties, follows from the monitoring of the analytical center Rusagrotrans“. In January, 3.5 million tons of grain can be supplied to foreign markets, including 3 million tons of wheat, by the end of February, exports can be halved, said the head of the center Igor Pavensky. In general, according to the results of the agricultural year, wheat exports can amount up to 37-37.5 million tons, until mid-December, the center’s analysts predicted shipments at the level of 40 million tons.
According to Rusagrotrans, purchase prices for wheat with 12.5% protein in deep-water ports increased by 400 rubles over a week, up to 18.3-18.6 thousand rubles / t without VAT, a year earlier wheat cost an average of 13.45 thousand rubles / t (CPT Novorossiysk). Purchase prices for low water increased by 200 rubles. up to 17.2 thousand rubles / ton – this is 5 thousand rubles / ton more than a year ago. At the same time, the Russian wheat market remains inactive. Domestic prices, taking into account the duty of 50 euros per ton, which is planned to be introduced from March 01, in all regions are 2-3 thousand rubles / ton lower than export parity.
Export demand prices for the Russian wheat with 12.5% protein with delivery in February rose by $ 9 to $ 295 / t (FOB Novorossiysk) over a week, supply prices are $ 300 / t and higher, according to the Rusagrotrans review. According to Refinitiv, as of January 19, the average price on the same basis was $ 300.5 / t. At the same time, demand from importers remains low, and supply is extremely small due to uncertainty with domestic prices – on the eve of the introduction and increase of duties, wheat does not get cheaper, Pavensky notes. Offer prices for the new crop rose up to $ 250 / t and more.
Earlier Pavensky said that the last time such high prices for wheat were in April 2014. Grain rises in price amid expectations of export restrictions. The expert told Kommersant that there would be a buyer for Russian wheat even at such a high price, since Russia has an important advantage in the cost of freight to North Africa and the Middle East. High wheat prices may hold out until spring, when the prospects for a new harvest in the world will begin to influence them, Pavensky noted.
According to the Agroexport center subordinate to the Ministry of Agriculture, Russia exported 30.2 million tons of grain from the beginning of the season up to January 11, 2021, which is 19.1% more than a year earlier. Exports of wheat during this period increased by 18.2% to 25.3 million tons, barley – by 68.5% to 3.7 million tons. Supplies of corn decreased by 14.7% to 1.1 million tons, other agricultural crops – by 64% to 0.2 million tons.
