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The decline in export prices for Russian wheat, which began against the background of the arrival of the new crop, has stopped. Analysts attribute this to the growth on global markets, which was recorded last week. So, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies ( IKAR) the price of wheat (12.5% protein, FOB Novorossiysk) increased by $ 1 and amounted to $ 202 / t. Refinitiv data indicate an increase to $ 200.5 / ton from $ 197.5 a week earlier, writes Reuters. Analysts from SovEkon”, On the contrary, they noticed a decrease by $ 1 to $ 199 / t, but they expect a rise in prices in the near future.
Last week, domestic prices for 3rd grade wheat remained unchanged and amounted to 12.3 thousand rubles / ton. Wheat of the 4th class has risen in price by 25 rubles. up to 12.15 thousand rubles / ton with self-pickup for the European part of the country, according to SovEkon“.
Also, analysts continue to raise their forecasts for the harvest of wheat: according to IKAR, it will amount to 82.5 million tons (+6 million tons per month), Rusagrotrans»Estimates the potential of the crop at 81.9 million tons (+0.9 million tons). ” SovEcon»Expects collection at the level of 81.2 million tons (+0.3 thousand tons versus the previous forecast and 1.9 million tons from the end of July).
As of August 24, grain and leguminous crops were threshed from 27.6 million hectares or 57.5% of the sown area, 90.7 million tons of grain were harvested with a yield of 32.9 c / ha. Including wheat harvested from 18.8 million hectares or 63.9% of crops, 67.4 million tons were harvested with a yield of 35.8 c / ha, the Ministry of Agriculture reports.
“Perhaps the market has moved from too much pessimism to too much optimism,” say SovEkon analysts“. There is talk about harvests of 82-84 million tons, but the analytical center considers such a harvest to be very high. “Crops in Siberia, the largest producer of spring wheat, are in the worst condition since 2012, according to our analysis,” – explained in the message ” SovEkon“.
At the same time, Rusagrotrans“Estimates the potential of the harvest in the Volga region at the level of the 2017 record – 18 million tons, Interfax reports. This is 6.5 million tons more than in 2019. “Damage from drought in regions where spring wheat is already being harvested turned out to be lower than expected. In the Volga region, cool or moderately warm and mostly dry weather is favorable for harvesting, “the head of the Rusagrotrans analytical center commented to the agency .»Igor Pavensky.
From the beginning of the season to August 20, Russia exported 6 million tons of grain, which is 20% less than the same period last agricultural year. Wheat supplies abroad amounted to 4.8 million tons (minus 24%), barley – 1 million tons (minus 17%), corn – 0.2 million tons (minus 36%). Analysts from SovEkon»It is predicted that in August exports will accelerate and reach 5.5 million tons, including 4.9 million tons of wheat.
