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Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Russian Exports !!!
Russian wheat export forecast downgraded.
Export rates are falling due to the introduction of duties on the export of wheat.
In the world market, prices for Russian wheat of the new crop may start from $ 240 per ton.
The wheat export duty had a negative impact on the rate of export of this crop, the general director of the analytical company ProZerno Vladimir Petrichenko. According to him, grain exports this year will amount to 45-46 million tons instead of 50-51 million tons. Of these, 36-36.5 million tons are wheat, the expert said to Agroinvestor.
At the conference, Petrichenko noted that on the world market prices for Russian wheat of the new harvest may “start” at $ 240 per ton, but may be less. However, he added, this price level is higher than it was for almost four seasons in a row, when at the beginning of the season prices were about the same – about $ 200 per tonne, plus or minus $ 5 / tonne. “The value of exported wheat with 12.5% protein as of March 24 reaches $ 268 / t FOB. The price tag is already going to $ 260-265 FOB Black Sea. And this is not surprising. The only question was the speed of how we will reach the price bottoms, and whether there will be any surges,” – the expert said.
According to the head of the analytical center Rusagrotrans Igor Pavensky, which he announced at the conference, according to the results of nine months of the 2020/21 season, grain exports will maintain a record level – 41.7 million tons against 33.8 million tons for the same period last agricultural year. Including the volume of wheat supplies is estimated at 34.1 million tons, while a year earlier it was 27.8 million tons. For the entire season, grain exports are expected to be higher than the two previous ones – 44.5 million tons excluding the EAEU countries. The forecast for wheat exports in 2020/21 agricultural years is 36.2 million tons excluding the EAEU countries, Pavensky estimated. The export of barley in July-March will also be a record – 4.9 million tons (over the same period last year – 3 million tons), corn – 2.5 million tons, which is 10.9% lower than in the nine months of last season. In general, for the marketing year, the supply of these types of grain may amount to 5.44 million tons and 2.72 million tons.
Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for delivery in May fell to $ 252 / t (FOB) versus $ 265 / t a few days ago: there is no demand for it against the background of more competitive offers from Europe and Ukraine, Pavensky said. “The situation is rather sad, the prices for the new harvest are also falling,” he said. Quotes for grain of the new harvest dropped to $ 230-235 / t (FOB) against more than $ 240 / t earlier. The price of wheat in deep-sea ports decreased to 14.1 thousand rubles / ton, excluding VAT, against the background of low purchasing activity, and for the first time this season turned out to be lower than last year’s level, as follows from Pavensky’s presentation. A year ago, the price of CPT Novorossiysk averaged 15.3 thousand rubles / ton.
Petrichenko added that now the prospects for the harvest in the US and the EU are being seen quite well. “The condition of winter crops is improving there. In Russia, this situation is still controversial – there are improvements in the South, while the rest of the territories are still difficult to assess clearly and clearly. But it is clear that the problematic situation of November-December last year is over,” – the expert said.
Earlier, Roman Nekrasov, director of the plant growing department of the Ministry of Agriculture, said that in Russia the area under winter crops that are in poor condition is gradually decreasing. According to him, 80% of winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition, while in mid-March the agricultural department estimated their share at 76.5%. According to Pavensky, the share of bad and unripe winter crops in Russia now reaches 8-10%.
During the conference, Chairman of the Board of the Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin recalled that Russia is the world leader in wheat supplies and noted that the country still cannot increase sales on the domestic market. “The lack of transparency in our market and the pricing system on it is one of the main reasons for the emergence of duties. It is necessary to offer a transparent mechanism, then the regulation will be market-based. Our common task is to unite the efforts of market participants. It is necessary for a real stock indicator to appear,” – he emphasized. – Now we are approaching from two sides: on the one hand, the exchange develops deliverable futures with bases in Voronezh, on the other hand, the exchange is involved in the procedure for calculating price indicators. If we can show in the near future how we can combine these two mechanisms.”
