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Volga Baikal AGRO NEWS Update on the Situation on the Russian Grain Market: Russian Wheat has risen in Price again !!!
Russian wheat has risen in price again. The price returned to the level of two weeks back after the decline.
Export demand prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for November delivery rose by $ 9 / t versus the previous week to $ 235-240 / t FOB. Igor Pavensky, head of the analytical center Rusagrotrans, commented to Agroinvestor: “The price returned to the level of two weeks back. One year ago the price was $ 191 / ton, and the maximum of the last season was $ 245 / ton.”
According to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, the price of wheat in Novorossiysk on Friday, October 2, was $ 237 / t (FOB), which is $ 4 more than a week earlier. According to monitoring by Refinitiv, wheat rose from $ 233 to $ 235.5 per ton.
Such dynamics was expected – prices reacted to the growth of futures in Chicago. On Monday, the December contract on the Chicago Stock Exchange reached its highest level since the end of January 2020 at $ 215 / t. Wheat quotes on world exchanges strengthened under the influence of news about drought in Russia and the USA. So, the current average price for French wheat with 11.5% protein added $ 7 to $ 237 / ton, Ukrainian one rose by $ 1 to $ 235.5 / ton, American SRW – by $ 10 to $ 260 / ton.
The US wheat futures began to rise in price actively the last week when the US Department of Agriculture announced reserves estimates that were below market expectations. Additionally, prices were supported by a decline in the forecast for the US wheat harvest. Analytical center SovEkon noted that against this background in the short term, prices would increase all over the world, including in the Black Sea region. “However, the current prices are unjustifiably overstated and in the next few months they may fallt”, – predicts SovEkon. According to their models, the seasonal average price level should be slightly above $ 200 per ton.
From the beginning of the 2020/21 season up to October 01, Russia exported 13.9 million tons of grain, which is 0.7% more than the same period of the previous season, follows from the data of the FCS (excluding indicators on mutual trade with the EAEU member states for August and September). Including export of wheat amounted to 11.6 million tons, barley – 2 million tons, corn – 0.3 million tons. Including September, according to analysts of Rusagrotrans, 5.94 million tons of grain were shipped to foreign markets, including 5.25 million tons of wheat, 598 thousand tons of barley and 88 thousand tons of corn. The forecast for grain supplies in October is 5.5-5.6 million tons.
